From The Daily Beast 2-11-16
Killer drones won’t be flying over oceans soon.
The budget proposal shows that officials canceled the Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike (UCLASS) program. It shows $818 million allocated for UCLASS in 2015 and 2016, but no funding for 2017.
Instead, there’s a new line for 2017: $89 million for a “Carrier-Based Aerial Refueling System.” This means goodbye to drone attacks and hello to flying robot gas stations.
Navy officials, who want to remain anonymous, confirmed that this drone tanker will use important UCLASS technologies. The Navy wants to adopt its radio and satellite control system. This system helps human controllers launch, land, and guide the drone on missions lasting half a day and covering thousands of miles.
“The Navy plans to develop the air frame step by step,” an official told the U.S. Naval Institute news site. “The biggest challenge is creating a system for moving the aircraft on and off the carrier.”
But, the tanker won’t carry weapons or advanced sensors as the plan for UCLASS included. It also won’t be stealthy, meaning it will struggle to escape enemy detection.
Over time, the Navy might add weapons and stealth features back. This could be the perfect drone that analysts, military leaders, and lawmakers have wanted for years. But the cancellation of UCLASS is a setback for U.S. air power.
In 2006, the Pentagon faced a choice. Option one: spend billions to make thousands of stealthy F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. This will replace old warplanes in the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps.
At the time, the F-35 was already facing issues, but it was the safer choice since it was still a manned jet fighter.
Option two: military leaders could take a risk on a new technology that could change air warfare. A killer drone is a small, fast, pilotless warplane. It could be more effective and cheaper than traditional fighters, such as the F-22 or F-35.
Boeing’s X-45 and Northrop’s X-47 are prototypes. They have a single engine and diamond-shaped wings. The wings are about 40 feet wide. They surprised their developers in tests. Humans control drones, which have sensors. They can breach enemy defenses with speed.
Small in size, they were hard to detect at first. When flying in groups, they could take enemy fire. They sacrificed some members to reach their targets.
Since the drones didn’t need a human pilot, the military could keep them in storage until needed. Operators could maintain their control skills with simulations and occasional live flights. This would save billions in training costs.
Effectiveness and efficiency were the selling points for these killer drones. But they also threatened the pilot-centric cultures of the Air Force and Navy. So, it wasn’t surprising when the military canceled the program in 2006.
A Boeing engineer, who wanted to remain anonymous, noted the military’s focus on manned planes. “They said we’d be too good in key areas, disrupting efforts to sell the F-22 and JSF,” the engineer stated. “If we had flown and shown survivability, JSF would have faced issues.”
It’s likely that pilot concerns weren’t the only reason for the program’s end. The military often opts for familiar technology instead of a new option, especially when a lot of money is involved.
In a twist of fate, the Navy stepped in. They funded the pilotless plane’s development through the UCLASS program.
Northrop built two bigger X-47Bs for testing. This led to impressive carrier launches and landings in 2013. Lockheed, Boeing, and General Atomics also worked on better prototypes. They aimed to create a final design that was ready for war.
In July 2013, an X-47B detected an issue in its navigation while approaching a carrier. It decided to divert to a land airfield on its own. This showed the rapid advancement of its artificial intelligence.
The killer drone seemed ready to join the Navy’s air fleet soon. The plan was to choose a contractor in a few years and deploy the new drone in the early 2020s. This would first support F-35s and other manned planes. It might also replace them. The timing seemed right, as the F-35 faced serious technical and budget issues. Of its three versions, the Navy’s F-35C lagged the most. The UCLASS killer drone looked set to gain an air power edge over manned planes, something it nearly did in 2006.
But that didn’t happen. “We can’t do everything we want,” said Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work, a former strong supporter of UCLASS. If Congress doesn’t act, the budget proposal will end UCLASS and stop Northrop’s X-47B and its competitors.
The five-year budget plan includes more than a billion dollars for 13 extra F-35Cs. This comes even with the jet’s ongoing problems.
The Navy will now use a robotic tanker plane. Meanwhile, the F-35 has once again outperformed its more advanced competitor. It will take the lead in military planning and spending.
Drone revolution, deferred.
Norman T. Neher, P.E.
Analytical Engineering Services, Inc.
Elko New Market, MN
www.aesmn.org